Evidence for changes in groundwater drought in temperate environments associated with climate change

There is currently a significant gap in our understanding of the effect of anthropogenic warming on groundwater drought. This is due to a number of factors including the limited availability of long groundwater level time series suitable for analysis, the low signal-to-noise ratios characteristic of many hydrological systems, and the infrequent nature of episodes of groundwater drought in temperate systems. Formal attribution of groundwater droughts due to anthropogenic warming is also challenging because of the potentially confounding influences of land use change and groundwater abstraction on groundwater drought. In the present study, we have not attempted to formally attribute groundwater droughts to climate change. Instead, we investigate how known centennialscale anthropogenic warming may be modifying the nature of groundwater droughts when other factors are discounted, and address the following question: how has the occurrence, duration, magnitude and intensity of groundwater drought, as expressed by changes in monthly Standardised Groundwater level Index (SGI) and in episodes of groundwater drought changed since 1891 under anthropogenic warming? Standardised indices of monthly groundwater levels (SGI), precipitation (SPI) and temperature (STI) are analysed, using two long, continuous monthly groundwater level data sets from the UK, for the period 1891 to 2015. Precipitation deficits are the main control on groundwater drought formation and propagation. However, long-term changes in groundwater drought include increases in the frequency and intensity of individual groundwater drought months, and increases in the frequency, magnitude and intensity of episodes of groundwater drought, are shown to be associated with anthropogenic warming over the study period. These is a transition from coincidence of episodes of groundwater and precipitation droughts at the end of the 19th century, to an increasing coincidence groundwater droughts with both precipitation droughts and with hot periods in the early 21st century. In the absence of long-term changes in precipitation deficits, it is inferred that the changing nature of groundwater droughts is due to changes in evapotranspiration (ET) associated with anthropogenic warming. Given the extent of shallow groundwater globally, anthropogenic warming may widely effect changes to groundwater drought characteristics in temperate environments

Evidence for changes in historic and future groundwater levels in the UK

We examine the evidence for climate-change impacts on groundwater levels provided by studies of the historical observational record, and future climate-change impact modelling. To date no evidence has been found for systematic changes in groundwater drought frequency or intensity in the UK, but some evidence of multi-annual to decadal coherence of groundwater levels and large-scale climate indices has been found, which should be considered when trying to identify any trends. We analyse trends in long groundwater level time-series monitored in seven observation boreholes in the Chalk aquifer, and identify statistically significant declines at four of these sites, but do not attempt to attribute these to a change in a stimulus. The evidence for the impacts of future climate change on UK groundwater recharge and levels is limited. The number of studies that have been undertaken is small and different approaches have been adopted to quantify impacts. Furthermore, these studies have generally focused on relatively small regions and reported local findings. Consequently, it has been difficult to compare them between locations. We undertake some additional analysis of the probabilistic outputs of the one recent impact study that has produced coherent multi-site projections of changes in groundwater levels. These results suggest reductions in annual and average summer levels, and increases in average winter levels, by the 2050s under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario, at most of the sites modelled, when expressed by the median of the ensemble of simulations. It is concluded, however, that local hydrogeological conditions can be an important control on the simulated response to a future climate projection

Relative influence of changes in hydraulic conductivity with depth and climate change on estimations of borehole yields

Understanding the impact of climate change on borehole yields from fractured aquifers is essential for future management of groundwater resources. Although the impact of changes in hydraulic conductivity with depth (VKD) on groundwater levels is well established, the relative significance of climate change and VKD on borehole yield estimates is poorly understood. We hypothesize that VKD exerts a significant additional control on borehole yields under climate change which has not been considered in yield assessments to date. We developed a radial groundwater flow model of an idealised pumping borehole in the fractured Chalk aquifer of south-east England, and applied 11 VKD profiles based on a simple conceptual representation of variability in hydraulic conductivity with depth in the Chalk. For each VKD profile, we applied 20 climate scenarios and six constant pumping rates for the period 1962 – 2014. We then estimated borehole yields based on the derived lowest pumping water levels during key drought years (e.g. 1976). We show that VKD is more significant (p 0.1) in controlling lowest pumping groundwater levels. Hydraulic conductivity is as significant a control as climate on borehole yields, although responses are highly non-linear associated with pumping water level-pumping rate curves intersecting key yield constraints (e.g. pump intake depth, major inflow horizons). It is recommended that variations in hydraulic conductivity with depth are taken into consideration in future assessments of borehole yields under climate change when developing integrated water resources management plans. The approach presented is generic and can be applied across different aquifers where vertical heterogeneity is present

Methods and models to quantify climate-driven changes in groundwater resources

Understanding climate-driven changes in groundwater resources is essential for future water resources management. In this paper, we review methods and models developed to quantify past, present and future climate-driven changes in groundwater resources, and provide an outlook for future research and practice. The Standardised Groundwater level Index (SGI) has been an effective methodology for quantifying historic groundwater resource status across different sites using observed historical data. However, the paucity of groundwater level data means that modelling groundwater levels may also be required. Lumped parameter models such as AquiMod have been shown to be effective at reconstructing groundwater levels at observation boreholes beyond historic records. These models have also been used for seasonal forecasting of groundwater levels and quantifying impacts of climate change. Major challenges remain in linking indicators of groundwater resource status (i.e. levels) with downstream impacts at both the high and low end of the hydrograph. An example of this is provided by estimating impacts of climate change on yields at abstraction boreholes during drought. As well as linking groundwater levels to impacts, future research should explore the full range of the SGI and apply the latest climate model data to AquiMod models. Access to both live groundwater level observations and high performance computing facilities would allow the methods reviewed here to be applied automatically, providing real-time hydrogeological data services

Changes in groundwater drought associated with anthropogenic warming

Here we present the first empirical evidence for changes in groundwater drought associated with anthropogenic warming in the absence of long-term changes in precipitation. Analysing standardised indices of monthly groundwater levels, precipitation and temperature, using two unique groundwater level data sets from the Chalk aquifer, UK, for the period 1891 to 2015, we show that precipitation deficits are the main control on groundwater drought formation and propagation. However, long-term changes in groundwater drought are shown to be associated with anthropogenic warming over the study period. These include increases in the frequency and intensity of individual groundwater drought months, and increases in the frequency, magnitude and intensity of episodes of groundwater drought, as well as an increasing tendency for both longer episodes of groundwater drought and for an increase in droughts of less than 1 year in duration. We also identify a transition from a coincidence of episodes of groundwater drought with precipitation droughts at the end of the 19th century, to an increasing coincidence with both precipitation droughts and with hot periods in the early 21st century. In the absence of long-term changes in precipitation deficits, we infer that the changing nature of groundwater droughts is due to changes in evapotranspiration (ET) associated with anthropogenic warming. We note that although the water tables are relatively deep at the two study sites, a thick capillary fringe of at least 30 m in the Chalk means that ET should not be limited by precipitation at either site. ET may be supported by groundwater through major episodes of groundwater drought and, hence, long-term changes in ET associated with anthropogenic warming may drive long-term changes in groundwater drought phenomena in the Chalk aquifer. Given the extent of shallow groundwater globally, anthropogenic warming may widely effect changes to groundwater drought characteristics in temperate environments

Does microbicide use in consumer products promote antimicrobial resistance? A critical review and recommendations for a cohesive approach to risk assessment

The increasing use of microbicides in consumer products is raising concerns related to enhanced microbicide resistance in bacteria and potential cross resistance to antibiotics. The recently published documents on this topic from the European Commission have spawned much interest to better understand the true extent of the putative links for the benefit of the manufacturers, regulators, and consumers alike. This white paper is based on a 2-day workshop (SEAC-Unilever, Bedford, United Kingdom; June 2012) in the fields of microbicide usage and resistance. It identifies gaps in our knowledge and also makes specific recommendations for harmonization of key terms and refinement/standardization of methods for testing microbicide resistance to better assess the impact and possible links with cross resistance to antibiotics. It also calls for a better cohesion in research in this field. Such information is crucial to developing any risk assessment framework on microbicide use notably in consumer products. The article also identifies key research questions where there are inadequate data, which, if addressed, could promote improved knowledge and understanding to assess any related risks for consumer and environmental safety

Characterising the vertical separation of shale-gas source rocks and aquifers across England and Wales (UK)

Shale gas is considered by many to have the potential to provide the UK with greater energy security, economic growth and jobs. However, development of a shale gas industry is highly contentious due to environmental concerns including the risk of groundwater pollution. Evidence suggests that the vertical separation between exploited shale units and aquifers is an important factor in the risk to groundwater from shale gas exploitation. A methodology is presented to assess the vertical separation between different pairs of aquifers and shales that are present across England and Wales. The application of the method is then demonstrated for two of these pairs—the Cretaceous Chalk Group aquifer and the Upper Jurassic Kimmeridge Clay Formation, and the Triassic sandstone aquifer and the Carboniferous Bowland Shale Formation. Challenges in defining what might be considered criteria for ‘safe separation’ between a shale gas formation and an overlying aquifer are discussed, in particular with respect to uncertainties in geological properties, aquifer extents and determination of socially acceptable risk levels. Modelled vertical separations suggest that the risk of aquifer contamination from shale exploration will vary greatly between shale–aquifer pairs and between regions and this will need to be considered carefully as part of the risk assessment and management for any shale gas development